Gaining Confidence in Uncertainty: How to Estimate Time for High-Level Planning

Picture this: a fantastic project has landed in your pipeline. You, your fellow PMO members and the rest of your organization can’t wait for the project’s success. The dependencies surrounding this project are building up – as well as the expectations. You need a plan as to how this is all going to work. Sure, you know it’ll be a big effort, but many people are relying on you.

So, what can you tell people about the timeline? You’ll need to plan to know!

Planning on a high level is invaluable in securing success for your project portfolio, but it does come with its own pains and gains.

High-level planning will help organizations do the following:

• Plan the budget required per fiscal period.
• Determine the need and timing for hiring new employees, taking into consideration the time necessary to find and onboard them.
• Communicate the roadmap of deliverables to achieve internal goals and deadlines or those set by customers’ needs.
• Coordinate and collaborate with multiple teams to achieve these goals and meet the deadlines.

If these points sound interesting to you, our Director of Customer Success for the AAP Region, Debbie Summerville, has compiled some of the most common challenges and their solutions so that you can more confidently estimate your projects’ timelines. Through conversations and exchanges, we’ve chosen some of the most important points. Sound interesting? Read on to learn more!

Table of Contents

• The Disconnect between the Reality of Active Projects and High-Level Plans
• The Disconnect between Management and High-Level Plans
• Lack of a Common Estimating Process
• You Have No Time to Spare
• Want to Learn More?

1. The Disconnect between the Reality of Active Projects and High-Level Plans

If active projects start changing their scope, or you learn that the estimated work will take less time to complete than expected, it may initially make sense to start work on new projects in your pipeline.

However, if you don’t have an overview of the potential impact on the portfolio level, you may be counting your chickens before they hatch.

In other terms, adding more active projects will inevitably introduce resource constraints on another ongoing project.

2. The Disconnect between Management and High-Level Plans

There is often a disconnect between management and the plans they are presented, as they aren’t always the most accurate. The most optimistic of upper management may operate under the assumption that these estimates are more solid than they are, especially when it comes to budgeting.

This issue is then made even worse by project managers lacking the required language to talk about the future. They may not want to promise too much, but they are also optimistic and excited about what is to come.

This confusion can also lead to issues regarding project success. For example, management may use these initial optimistic estimates as metrics against which to judge success; it may, however, not look the same for the teams working on them.

3. Lack of a Common Estimating Process

Oftentimes, hiccups in the planning process can be traced back to different parties having different understandings of how to estimate. This can even happen in the same department or team.

4. You Have No Time to Spare

If you use an estimation method which requires team members give their best guesses as to how long a task will take, like bottom-up, it’s hardly surprising that people don’t have the spare time to plan. Unfortunately, these people are the subject matter experts who can probably give you the best estimate of how long their work will take

Taking subject matter experts away to estimate at a low-level before even knowing if the project will be approved is a fool’s errand. This can also easily lead to delays and bottlenecks.

Want to Learn More?

This is just the beginning of homing in on your high-level planning and time skills. With the right tools and frame of mind, you can plan more confidently and see real success in your portfolio.

Intrigued? Debbie Summerville is happy to have a personal meeting with you to show you how your organization could reap the benefits of more accurate time estimation. You may be surprised about what you can achieve.